NBA Finals · 2019-20
6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Sep 30
MIA 98@
LAL 11628·20·19·31 / 31·34·28·2366%Game 2Oct 2MIA 114@LAL 12423·31·39·21 / 29·39·35·2169%Game 3Oct 4LAL 104@MIA 11523·31·26·24 / 26·32·27·3055%Game 4Oct 6LAL 102@MIA 9627·22·26·27 / 22·25·23·2642%Game 5Oct 9MIA 111@LAL 10825·35·28·23 / 24·32·26·2631%Game 6Oct 11LAL 106@MIA 9328·36·23·19 / 20·16·22·3542%
MIA 98@LAL 11628·20·19·31 / 31·34·28·2366%Game 2Oct 2MIA 114@LAL 12423·31·39·21 / 29·39·35·2169%Game 3Oct 4LAL 104@MIA 11523·31·26·24 / 26·32·27·3055%Game 4Oct 6LAL 102@MIA 9627·22·26·27 / 22·25·23·2642%Game 5Oct 9MIA 111@LAL 10825·35·28·23 / 24·32·26·2631%Game 6Oct 11LAL 106@MIA 9328·36·23·19 / 20·16·22·3542%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
50.6%
Brier over the series
0.2631
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.