Conference Semifinals · 2019-20
5 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Aug 31
MIA 115@
MIL 10429·31·32·23 / 40·23·23·1832%Game 2Sep 2MIA 116@MIL 11438·28·24·26 / 29·31·26·2834%Game 3Sep 4MIL 100@MIA 11530·27·30·13 / 29·21·25·4062%Game 4Sep 6MIL 118@MIA 115OT22·28·35·22 / 31·17·40·1936%Game 5Sep 8MIA 103@MIL 9419·33·21·30 / 28·18·19·2936%
MIA 115@MIL 10429·31·32·23 / 40·23·23·1832%Game 2Sep 2MIA 116@MIL 11438·28·24·26 / 29·31·26·2834%Game 3Sep 4MIL 100@MIA 11530·27·30·13 / 29·21·25·4062%Game 4Sep 6MIL 118@MIA 115OT22·28·35·22 / 31·17·40·1936%Game 5Sep 8MIA 103@MIL 9419·33·21·30 / 28·18·19·2936%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
1 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
39.8%
Brier over the series
0.3750
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.