Conference Finals · 2019-20
6 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Sep 15
MIA 117@
BOS 114OT18·37·16·35 / 26·29·28·2330%Game 2Sep 17MIA 106@BOS 10128·19·37·22 / 31·29·17·2431%Game 3Sep 19BOS 117@MIA 10631·32·26·28 / 22·28·24·3240%Game 4Sep 23BOS 109@MIA 11223·21·32·33 / 24·26·27·3557%Game 5Sep 25MIA 108@BOS 12126·32·25·25 / 18·33·41·2969%Game 6Sep 27BOS 113@MIA 12527·33·26·27 / 33·29·26·3756%
MIA 117@BOS 114OT18·37·16·35 / 26·29·28·2330%Game 2Sep 17MIA 106@BOS 10128·19·37·22 / 31·29·17·2431%Game 3Sep 19BOS 117@MIA 10631·32·26·28 / 22·28·24·3240%Game 4Sep 23BOS 109@MIA 11223·21·32·33 / 24·26·27·3557%Game 5Sep 25MIA 108@BOS 12126·32·25·25 / 18·33·41·2969%Game 6Sep 27BOS 113@MIA 12527·33·26·27 / 33·29·26·3756%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
47.1%
Brier over the series
0.2999
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.