First Round · 2020-21
4 games · Milwaukee Bucks advanced
Every game
Game 1May 22
MIA 107@
MIL 109OT24·26·28·21 / 22·31·27·1966%Game 2May 24MIA 98@MIL 13220·31·27·20 / 46·32·29·2567%Game 3May 27MIL 113@MIA 8426·23·37·27 / 14·22·24·2452%Game 4May 29MIL 120@MIA 10322·35·34·29 / 26·38·21·1857%
MIA 107@MIL 109OT24·26·28·21 / 22·31·27·1966%Game 2May 24MIA 98@MIL 13220·31·27·20 / 46·32·29·2567%Game 3May 27MIL 113@MIA 8426·23·37·27 / 14·22·24·2452%Game 4May 29MIL 120@MIA 10322·35·34·29 / 26·38·21·1857%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
60.7%
Brier over the series
0.1588
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.