Conference Finals · 2021-22
7 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1May 17
BOS 107@
MIA 11828·34·14·31 / 25·29·39·2560%Game 2May 19BOS 127@MIA 10235·35·26·31 / 24·21·26·3140%Game 3May 21MIA 109@BOS 10339·23·25·22 / 18·29·25·3128%Game 4May 23MIA 82@BOS 10211·22·19·30 / 29·28·19·2670%Game 5May 25BOS 93@MIA 8017·20·32·24 / 19·23·16·2248%Game 6May 27MIA 111@BOS 10329·19·34·29 / 22·24·29·2824%Game 7May 29BOS 100@MIA 9632·23·27·18 / 17·32·26·2148%
BOS 107@MIA 11828·34·14·31 / 25·29·39·2560%Game 2May 19BOS 127@MIA 10235·35·26·31 / 24·21·26·3140%Game 3May 21MIA 109@BOS 10339·23·25·22 / 18·29·25·3128%Game 4May 23MIA 82@BOS 10211·22·19·30 / 29·28·19·2670%Game 5May 25BOS 93@MIA 8017·20·32·24 / 19·23·16·2248%Game 6May 27MIA 111@BOS 10329·19·34·29 / 22·24·29·2824%Game 7May 29BOS 100@MIA 9632·23·27·18 / 17·32·26·2148%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
45.4%
Brier over the series
0.3208
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.