Conference Semifinals · 2021-22
6 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 2
PHI 92@
MIA 10622·29·21·20 / 30·20·30·2665%Game 2May 4PHI 103@MIA 11924·28·28·23 / 31·29·31·2867%Game 3May 6MIA 79@PHI 9917·17·31·14 / 21·20·27·3155%Game 4May 8MIA 108@PHI 11628·28·29·23 / 30·34·25·2760%Game 5May 10PHI 85@MIA 12019·25·22·19 / 31·25·25·3962%Game 6May 12MIA 99@PHI 9028·21·25·25 / 25·23·15·2745%
PHI 92@MIA 10622·29·21·20 / 30·20·30·2665%Game 2May 4PHI 103@MIA 11924·28·28·23 / 31·29·31·2867%Game 3May 6MIA 79@PHI 9917·17·31·14 / 21·20·27·3155%Game 4May 8MIA 108@PHI 11628·28·29·23 / 30·34·25·2760%Game 5May 10PHI 85@MIA 12019·25·22·19 / 31·25·25·3962%Game 6May 12MIA 99@PHI 9028·21·25·25 / 25·23·15·2745%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
58.8%
Brier over the series
0.1747
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.