MIA v ATL · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2021-22

4

final

1

5 games · Miami Heat advanced

Every game

MIA 11517·23·20·31 / 23·36·27·2965%Game 2Apr 19

MIA 11525·29·22·29 / 26·30·31·2867%Game 3Apr 22

ATL 11124·30·31·25 / 22·39·16·3454%Game 4Apr 24

ATL 8625·30·25·30 / 26·15·20·2546%Game 5Apr 26

MIA 9722·20·22·30 / 21·33·21·2272%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

60.7%

Brier over the series

0.1636

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.