MIL v MIA · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2022-23

Milwaukee Bucks

1

final

4

5 games · Miami Heat advanced

Every game

MIL 11733·35·34·28 / 24·31·33·2929%Game 2Apr 19

MIL 13828·27·30·37 / 35·46·37·2062%Game 3Apr 22

MIA 12121·32·26·20 / 29·37·28·2755%Game 4Apr 24

MIA 11933·24·32·25 / 28·22·28·4161%Game 5Apr 26

MIL 126OT36·27·23·32 / 33·36·33·1643%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

49.9%

Brier over the series

0.2668

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.