Conference Semifinals · 2022-23
6 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 30
MIA 108@
NY 10121·29·31·27 / 32·23·20·2634%Game 2May 2MIA 105@NY 11129·25·23·28 / 31·20·25·3563%Game 3May 6NY 86@MIA 10521·23·26·16 / 29·29·29·1858%Game 4May 8NY 101@MIA 10930·18·33·20 / 31·25·34·1962%Game 5May 10MIA 103@NY 11224·23·27·29 / 14·36·34·2858%Game 6May 12NY 92@MIA 9631·19·21·21 / 24·27·23·2262%
MIA 108@NY 10121·29·31·27 / 32·23·20·2634%Game 2May 2MIA 105@NY 11129·25·23·28 / 31·20·25·3563%Game 3May 6NY 86@MIA 10521·23·26·16 / 29·29·29·1858%Game 4May 8NY 101@MIA 10930·18·33·20 / 31·25·34·1962%Game 5May 10MIA 103@NY 11224·23·27·29 / 14·36·34·2858%Game 6May 12NY 92@MIA 9631·19·21·21 / 24·27·23·2262%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
56.0%
Brier over the series
0.2039
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.