Conference Finals · 2022-23
7 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 17
MIA 123@
BOS 11628·29·46·20 / 30·36·25·2529%Game 2May 19MIA 111@BOS 10524·30·21·36 / 25·25·33·2230%Game 3May 21BOS 102@MIA 12822·24·17·39 / 30·31·32·3556%Game 4May 23BOS 116@MIA 9923·27·38·28 / 29·27·23·2038%Game 5May 25MIA 97@BOS 11020·24·28·25 / 35·26·29·2067%Game 6May 27BOS 104@MIA 10334·23·22·25 / 29·24·19·3145%Game 7May 29MIA 103@BOS 8422·30·24·27 / 15·26·25·1831%
MIA 123@BOS 11628·29·46·20 / 30·36·25·2529%Game 2May 19MIA 111@BOS 10524·30·21·36 / 25·25·33·2230%Game 3May 21BOS 102@MIA 12822·24·17·39 / 30·31·32·3556%Game 4May 23BOS 116@MIA 9923·27·38·28 / 29·27·23·2038%Game 5May 25MIA 97@BOS 11020·24·28·25 / 35·26·29·2067%Game 6May 27BOS 104@MIA 10334·23·22·25 / 29·24·19·3145%Game 7May 29MIA 103@BOS 8422·30·24·27 / 15·26·25·1831%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
42.5%
Brier over the series
0.3492
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.