NBA Finals · 2022-23
5 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 1
MIA 93@
DEN 10420·22·21·30 / 29·30·25·2068%Game 2Jun 4MIA 111@DEN 10826·25·24·36 / 23·34·26·2533%Game 3Jun 7DEN 109@MIA 9424·29·29·27 / 24·24·20·2641%Game 4Jun 9DEN 108@MIA 9520·35·31·22 / 21·30·22·2245%Game 5Jun 12MIA 89@DEN 9424·27·20·18 / 22·22·26·2472%
MIA 93@DEN 10420·22·21·30 / 29·30·25·2068%Game 2Jun 4MIA 111@DEN 10826·25·24·36 / 23·34·26·2533%Game 3Jun 7DEN 109@MIA 9424·29·29·27 / 24·24·20·2641%Game 4Jun 9DEN 108@MIA 9520·35·31·22 / 21·30·22·2245%Game 5Jun 12MIA 89@DEN 9424·27·20·18 / 22·22·26·2472%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
51.8%
Brier over the series
0.2569
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.